National Market Report & Selected Economic Factors Impacting Real Estate Markets

National housing market indicators available as of February showed activity in housing markets improved. Trends in some of the top indicators for this month include:
 
• Purchases of new homes increased in February for a third consecutive month. New single-family home sales rose 1.1 percent to 640,000 units (SAAR) in February from a downwardly revised pace of 633,000 in January but were 19.0 percent lower year-over- year (y/y). Note that monthly data on new home sales tend to be volatile. New home sales are based on a purchase agreement, unlike existing home sales which are based on a closing. (Sources: HUD and Census Bureau)
 
• Existing home sales surged in February, ending a 12-month decline. The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) reported that February sales of existing homes (including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and cooperatives) climbed 14.5 percent to 4.58 million units (SAAR) from a pace of 4.00 million in January but were still 22.6 percent lower than a year ago (5.92 million units). Sales rose in all four major Census regions. Because existing home sales are based on a closing, February sales reflect contract signings in December and January. Mortgage rates had trended down from previous highs and month-to-month (m/m) house prices have been declining for the past several months. Inventories of existing homes for sale are still lean, however.
 
• Construction of new homes rose in February. Single-family housing starts increased 1.1 percent to 830,000 units (SAAR) in February from a downwardly revised pace of 821,000 units in January but were 31.6 percent lower y/y. Multifamily housing starts (5+ units in a structure), at 608,000 units (SAAR), rose 24.1 percent m/m and were 14.3 percent higher y/y. Note that m/m changes in multifamily starts are often volatile. (Sources: HUD, Census Bureau)
 
• Annual house price appreciation continued to slow in January, with annual gains ranging from 2.5 to 5.3 percent. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) seasonally adjusted (SA) purchase-only house price index for January estimated that home values were up 0.2 percent m/m and rose 5.3 percent y/y, down from an annual gain of 6.7 percent in December. The non-SA CoreLogic Case- Shiller® 20-City Home Price Index, posted a 0.6 percent m/m decline in home values in January and a 2.5 percent y/y increase, down from a 4.6 percent annual gain in December. Mortgage financing has become more expensive as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, a process that began in April 2022. House prices peaked in June 2022 and may well continue to decline modestly. The FHFA (SA) index now stands 0.6 percent below its June peak. (Both price indices are released with a 2-month lag.)
 
• The inventory of homes for sale fell for new homes but remained unchanged for existing homes. The listed inventory of new homes for sale, at 436,000 units at the end of February, was down 0.7 percent m/m but was up 10.1 percent y/y. That inventory would support 8.2 months of sales at the current sales pace, down from 8.3 months in January. Available existing homes for sale, at 980,000 units in February, remained the same m/m but were 15.3 percent higher y/y. That inventory represents a 2.6-month supply, down from 2.9 months in January due to an increase in sales. The long-term average for months’ supply of homes on the market is 6.0 months.
 
• Homeowners’ equity declined in the fourth quarter, and the number of underwater borrowers increased. The Federal Reserve estimated that homeowners’ equity (total property value less mortgage debt outstanding) decreased 0.7 percent, or $226 billion, in the fourth quarter of 2022 for the first time since the first quarter of 2012. 
Homeowners’ equity increased 0.2 percent, or $63.3 billion, in the third quarter and now stands at nearly $31.0 trillion. Change in home prices is the primary driver of gains or losses in equity. For the fourth quarter of 2022, CoreLogic estimated the number of underwater borrowers (those who owe more on their mortgage than the value of their home) increased by 66,000 from the third quarter to 1.171 million, or 2.1 percent of residential properties with a mortgage but were 19,000 fewer than one year ago. The number of underwater borrowers rose by 51,000 in the third quarter of 2022 for the first time since 2018.
 
• Forbearance on mortgage loans continued to decline. The MBA Forbearance Survey indicates the share of homeowners with mortgages in forbearance was 0.60 percent (302,000 households) in February, down from 0.64 percent in January and 1.18 percent (588,000 households) one year ago. The forbearance rate was only 0.25 percent of all home loans in the beginning of March 2020, before the economic effects of the COVID pandemic began to be felt.
 
• Housing insecurity due to the pandemic remains elevated but has improved. HUD analysis of the Census Household Pulse Survey (Week 55: March 1-13, 2023) shows that approximately 11.6 percent, or 5.35 million, renter households were behind on rental payments, down from 13.7 percent, or 6.30 million, one year ago. An estimated 4.1 percent, or 1.90 million, renter households feared eviction was imminent in the next two months, down from 5.7 percent, or 2.62 million, a year ago. Approximately 5.16 percent, or 4.26 million, homeowner households were behind on their mortgage payments in March, an improvement over 6.7 percent, or 5.53 million, in March 2022. An estimated 0.85 percent, or 701,000 homeowners, feared foreclosure was imminent in the next two months, down from 1.17 percent, or 966,000 a year ago.
 
• The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) has trended down the past three weeks. The 30-year FRM reached an average weekly low in March of 6.32 percent the week ending March 30, 2023, but was still up from a weekly low in February of 6.09 percent. The mortgage rate rose steadily in 2022 as the Fed increased interest rates, reaching a high of 7.08 percent in November and then trended down to a low of 6.09 percent in February 2023 as inflation appeared to be retreating. Changes in inflation expectations and financial market concerns have caused mortgage rates to fluctuate recently. The 30-year FRM was 4.67 percent one year ago.
(Source: Freddie Mac)

A Review of Selected Economic Factors
Impacting Real Estate Markets

Current Active Listings per Town

BELVEDERE

CORTE MADERA

FAIRFAX

GREENBRAE

KENTFIELD

LARKSPUR

MILL VALLEY

MUIR BEACH

NOVATO

ROSS

SAN ANSELMO

SAN RAFAEL

SAUSALITO

STINSON BEACH

TIBURON

FOR SALE

Downtown Mill Valley

41 Buena Vista Avenue

4 BD 2.5 BA 3283 SF $3,995,000

Built in 1908, this one-of-a-kind stately brown shingle home has been tastefully remodeled and combines traditional appointments of the era, featuring gorgeous moldings, high ceilings, double hung windows, heavy pocket doors, hardwood floors, window seats, and gorgeous built-ins throughout!
 
This elegant home sits on a spacious street-to-street lot, on the North side of Buena Vista Avenue arguably the best block in downtown Mill Valley. Bathed in natural light this home truly is one of the best of the best of the original Mill Valley homes and is just steps from all of the wonderful amenities that downtown Mill Valley offers.

SOLD

downtown Mill Valley

91 Sunnyside Ave

4 BD 3 BA 6251 Lot SF $3,800,000

Sold at $4,175,000!
9.9% above the asking!
 
This stately shingle home boasts enormous curb appeal!!
Beautiful vintage architecture and character, with tasteful modern updates throughout.
 
Hardwood floors, beautiful moldings and baseboards, wainscoting and many other period details, high ceilings, and abundant natural light throughout.
 
Large remodeled kitchen, formal dining room, spacious living room, and sitting area, as well as a large multi-purpose room with ensuite bathroom, which could be used as an office, family room, gym, or bedroom. 
 
An additional ensuite bedroom completes the main level.
 
Upstairs features two additional bedrooms, a full bathroom plus the large en-suite Master bedroom.
 
Kitchen/family room opens to the large landscaped and flat yard. Level lawn and patio areas.
 
Attached garage plus driveway.
 
Dreamy master, A++ location!!

Please see my website for a 
comprehensive list of sales

Visit Page

Sharon Kramlich

DRE #: 01184449
M: 415.609.4473
sharonkramlich.com
[email protected]

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.

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National Market Report and Selected Economic Factors Impacting Real Estate Markets

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