Market Insight- November 2022

CALIFORNIA MARKET REPORT

Autumn Report, November 21st, 2022

The economic headwinds impacting California real estate since spring – high inflation, soaring interest rates, declines, and volatility in financial markets – continued to take a toll on the autumn market. Large year-over-year drops in sales activity, overbidding and appreciation rates, and substantial increases in price reductions and days-on-market were the norm in September and October. On November 10th, however, a decline in the latest monthly inflation reading led to a sudden, significant drop in mortgage rates – though remaining much higher than last year – and a sizeable rebound in stock markets. It is too early to know if the positive direction of these changes will be sustained over the longer term, and what their exact effects will be on housing markets in the coming months.
 
Across the state, tens of thousands of homes continued to sell in early-mid autumn – a considerable, though declining proportion still selling quickly over list price – but the general trend was cooling demand. After years of holding the balance of power, sellers have reacted to changed circumstances in different ways: Besides increased price reductions since spring, the number of new listings coming on the market is well down year over year, and a higher percentage of listings is being removed from the market without selling. The economy and housing market remain in a period of adjustment, causing
many buyers and sellers to be more cautious as they wait to see how things will settle out.
 
The market now enters the 2-month, mid-winter holiday period, which typically sees the year’s lowest levels of activity: The numbers of new listings and of listings going into contract usually plunge to their annual lows, and an increasing percentage of sellers, especially in higher price segments, pull homes off-market to await the new year, or early spring. (Many listings taken off the market in November and December will presumably be relisted in Q1 2023.) Still, buying and selling continue, though at reduced levels, and this can be an excellent time for buyers to aggressively negotiate prices.
 
Market dynamics and statistics vary by county, property type, and price segment.

Selected Excerpts from National Survey of Home Buyers & Sellers

By the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR)

“The median distance between the home that recent buyers purchased and the home from which they moved was 50 miles – a record high and more than a three-fold jump from a median of 15 miles from 2018 through 2021.”
 
“The shares of buyers who purchased homes in small towns (29%) and rural areas (19%) were the highest ever recorded, while the shares of homes purchased in suburban (39%) and urban (10%) locations declined from one year ago.”
 
“First-time buyers made up only 26% of all buyers, down from 34% last year and a peak of 50% in 2010 during the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. The age of the typical first-time buyer was 36 years – up from 33 years one year ago – and the typical repeat buyer's age climbed to 59 years from 56 years in 2021. Both ages are the highest in the history of the data set.”
 
“Seventy-eight percent of recent buyers financed their home purchase, down from 87% last year and driven by the increased share of repeat buyers who paid all cash.”
 
“The median age of home sellers was 60 years, up from 56 years one year ago. Sellers typically lived in their home for 10 years before selling.”

11/3/22 news release: https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-finds-share-of-first-time-home-buyers-smaller-older-than-ever-before. How national trends apply to the Bay Area is uncertain. Based on limited National Association of REALTORS® survey of buyers and sellers, not on hard data collected upon hundreds of thousands of closed transactions.

See the full California Real Estate Market Report
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California Real Estate Market Report

MACROECONOMIC CHARTS

Selected Macroeconomic Factors and Indicators Pertinent to Bay Area Real Estate Markets

See the full Macroeconomic Charts 
by clicking below...

Macroeconomic Charts

For additional references, 
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Bay Area Newsletters

Resources Links

Current Active Listings per Town

BELVEDERE

CORTE MADERA

FAIRFAX

GREENBRAE

KENTFIELD

LARKSPUR

MILL VALLEY

MUIR BEACH

NOVATO

ROSS

SAN ANSELMO

SAN RAFAEL

SAUSALITO

STINSON BEACH

TIBURON

528 Montford Avenue, Mill Valley
 
4 BD | 3 BA | 3,171 SF
 
Listed at $3,495,000
 
This south-facing Homestead Valley home is bathed in natural sunlight and offers gorgeous valley views and privacy. The Stolte Grove of redwoods is just steps away. Well-known open-space trails are nearby which lead to Four Corners, Muir Beach, Mt. Tam, Stinson, and many other natural wonders that Marin County offers. The Homestead Valley Community Center and Pool are close at hand.
 
This is an elegant Mediterranean-style home with a low-maintenance clay tile roof and stucco walls. Mature plantings including trellised flowering vines, lemon and olive trees, bougainvillea, and other lush plants give this home a resort-like feel. Rebuilt from the ground up in 2000 this special home is a rare find. Your family will stay connected with a terrific open floor plan and a wonderful relationship with the outdoors!

141 Walnut Avenue, Mill Valley

Listed for $4,995,000,
Sold for $5,300,000!
 
Sold for 6% over the asking price, the highest recorded price per square foot ever paid for a home in Sycamore Park/Tamalpais Park and 2nd highest for Mill Valley!
 
Seller Represented

335 Lovell Avenue, Mill Valley

Listed for $3,995,00,
Sold for $5,000,000!
 
Buyer in contract within 2 days of showing exposure.
Closed within 8 days, all cash, 25% over the asking price.
 
Seller Represented

209 Cascade Drive,
Mill Valley

Listed for $4,395,000,
Sold for $4,975,000!

Buyer in contract within 2 days. We closed in 7 days, all cash, 13% over asking.
 
Seller Represented

159 Linden Lane,
Mill Valley

Listed for $2,650,000,
Sold for $3,150,000!

Received multiple offers. Winning buyers closed with a loan, 19% over the asking price.
 
Seller Represented

16 Vasco Drive,
Mill Valley

Sold for $3,500,000!

Beautifully updated single-level contemporary home on a large, sunny, mostly flat lot in the highly desirable Scott Valley 
neighborhood...
 
Buyer Represented

289 Tamalpais Avenue,
Mill Valley

Sold at $2,900,000!

This home was sold off-market. Tranquil, sun-drenched Middle Ridge one-level family home, with fantastic views of Mt. Tam and the surrounding hillside...
 
Buyer Represented

315 Panoramic Hwy,
Mill Valley

Sold at $1,900,000!

Stunning panoramic views in one
 of the most mystical settings 
overlooking precious protected
 open space and the Pacific Ocean...
 
Buyer Represented

90 Evelyn Avenue,
Mill Valley

Sold at $2,150,000!

Private and peaceful living off the Lovell loop with wonderful 
views of the redwoods 
and Cascade Canyon…
 
Buyer Represented

16 Milland Ct,
Mill Valley

Sold at $2,010,000!

Gorgeous Richardson Bay views, and on a quiet small cul-de-sac with 
level walk-out garden and view-facing deck as well as a two-car attached garage!
 
Buyer Represented

8 Neila Way,
Mill Valley

Sold at $1,825,000!

Beautiful Mt. Tam views, this three-bedroom, three-bathroom home, is completely remodeled and offers an open floor plan with a wonderful back garden and patios...
 
Buyer Represented

Please see my website for a 
comprehensive list of sales

Visit Page

Sharon Kramlich
 
DRE #: 01184449
M: 415.609.4473
[email protected]

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.

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November 2022 Market Insight

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November 2022 Market Insight

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