Sharon Kramlich's Newsletter

 

 

 

 

Sales Volume by Month

A clear illustration of the role of seasonality in the real estate market. Starting in November activity begins to plunge towards the mid-winter nadir. Remember that November sales volumes mostly reflect October accepted-offer activity. Market activity usually hits bottom in December, which then typically makes January the month with the lowest number of closed sales.



Home Sales & Median House Prices 

 

Comparing 2019 YTD with the 3 previous years shows a declining percentage of sales that went into contract within 30 days of coming on market while receiving multiple offers, though that still applied to 1 in 4 sales. So far in 2019, those listings selling quickly with multiple offers averaged a sales price almost 8% above list price - i.e. competing buyers drove the sales prices considerably higher.

 

If the price segment's percentage of sales is significantly lower than the segment's percentage of listings available to buy, it signifies substantially softer demand as compared to other price segments within the county. This is the situation in the highest price ranges: Homes over $3m make up 6.5% of sales vs. 23% of listings on the market. 

 

These are generalities: Overpriced listings in any segment will typically fail to sell, and appealing, well-priced listings of any price can sell very, very quickly.

 

 

Sales in this most expensive segment are relatively steady, but the number of listings for sale has been climbing significantly - creating a situation in which more sellers compete for the same number of buyers.



Market Statistics by Price Segment

 

Location is, of course, always important in real estate value - within the county, within the city, within the neighborhood - but to a large degree, market dynamics within the county are also determined by the home's price segment. And individual cities will often have homes in several or even all of the price segments broken out in the 2 charts below, with these segments seeing differing supply and demand conditions.

 

Generally speaking, by most measures, demand is softer and supply is higher (as compared to demand) above the $2 million price threshold, and that difference becomes more substantial above $3 million.





People Moving in & out of CA in 2018

 

According to new census estimates, approx. 501,000 people from other states moved to CA in 2018, while 691,000 Californians relocated to other states – a net loss of 190,000. In addition, an estimated 284,000 foreign nationals moved into CA from outside the country. (Foreign out-migration numbers are not available.) 

 

The top states for out-migration are Texas, Arizona, Washington, Nevada & Oregon, states with high-tech centers of their own and/or no state income taxes, and/or significantly lower housing costs - thus attracting working residents, local businesses, and retirees. Updated Bay Area figures are not yet available, though migration trends here have generally paralleled state trends in recent years.

 

The following 2 charts illustrate both year-over-year changes in Marin market conditions and the role of seasonality within the calendar year.



Ratio of Withdrawn (No-Sale) Listings 

 

Last year saw a tremendous jump in the number of listings pulled off the market without selling in November and December - this was a particularly volatile time in financial markets and interest rates were relatively high. The situation with both of those factors has changed dramatically in 2019, but it is too early to see how that will affect the number of listings withdrawn in the last 2 months of this year.